It is reported that the spot inventory of some popular models of components of leading enterprises such as Trina, Tongwei, and Canadian Solar has been largely cleared, and the production lines have entered the "produce and ship" state. The queuing period for procurement has generally been extended by 5-7 days to about 15 days. Even small factories in the fourth and fifth tiers can sell as long as they have spot goods.

The photovoltaic industry returned to the "seller's market" overnight, and the subsequent development has become a matter of course - price increase. The current component price has soared by 20%. According to the price adjustment notice of a well-known first-line brand, the current component price has been raised from 0.67 yuan/W to 0.72 yuan/W, and the manufacturer's sales are very busy.

The ex-factory price of components of leading enterprises such as Trina and Longi also rose by 0.02-0.05 yuan/W last week, and the domestic and European markets have confirmed the price increase. The industry expects that the price center of components is expected to move closer to the 0.8 yuan/W range. Silicon materials are difficult to drive price increases. Why is the previously sluggish component market so hot?

Reversal imbalance under the rush to install

In 2024, the photovoltaic industry experienced the dilemma of low prices, losses and struggles. In order to cope with this situation, the industry began to conduct self-discipline and capacity optimization. Enterprises increased market prices by coordinating production cuts and controlling the rhythm of capacity release.

On February 9, 2025, China's National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Grid-connected Electricity Prices and Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy". The document set June 1, 2025 as a policy watershed, which directly triggered a rush to install in the photovoltaic industry. In order to lock in profits, developers accelerated the advancement of projects, resulting in a surge in demand for components.

After the Spring Festival, market demand at home and abroad warmed up, especially the centralized photovoltaic projects in the Chinese market accelerated their launch, and inventories in overseas markets such as Europe were gradually digested. The increase in market demand directly promoted the rise in component prices.

In addition, the rise in component prices was also affected by tight supply chains. At the end of 2024, the inventory of the photovoltaic industry fell to a historical low, and current orders have been scheduled until the second quarter of 2025.

On the other hand, the component delivery cycle has been extended, and there have been endless phenomena such as shortages, order cancellations, and order grabbing. The fragility of the supply chain has been fully exposed under the short-term demand fluctuations driven by policies.

What are the sequelae after the tide recedes?

After the "6.30" rush to install in 2016, the price of photovoltaic components has fallen sharply, and the problem of capacity clearance has become increasingly prominent.

In 2025, the price of photovoltaic components began to rise under the influence of multiple factors, but there are still many challenges in the future.

The surge in installed capacity brought about by the rush to install will support the price of photovoltaic components, but after the rush to install, under the pressure of a sharp drop in demand and capacity clearance, it is foreseeable that there will be a risk of price decline.

As we all know, the price increase is due to the periodic rush to install, which is greatly affected by policies. As for whether the price increase will continue, it depends on the market growth in the second half of the year. Fundamentally speaking, whether the price of the industrial chain can continue to rise depends on whether supply and demand improve.

In any case, in the long run, the two major policies will promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. Once market demand picks up and the pressure of clearing sales is resolved, it will be the starting point for a new round of explosive growth.